I published this in 1999 It was mostly ignored and when it was commented upon, it was ridiculed.
What If There Were 2,000 Television Networks?
Since its inception, access to television programming has been restricted. Until the introduction of cable and satellite television, viewing options were generally limited to three broadcast networks, Public Television and frequently one local independent station. Because the Federal government claimed ownership of the airwaves, freedom of expression was severely restricted through several controlling mechanisms.
With the introduction of cable television in the 1980's, the government lost the power to control programming and shows began to enter our homes that would have been censored during the broadcast era. Many people considered much of the cable programming morally, politically or cultural offensive. When this reached a critical level in the 1990's, public dialogue began to focus on self-censoring technologies such as the V-chip.
Although cable television dramatically increased our viewing options, it was still relatively restricted. First, in order to acquire one of the multiplexed channels, a network had to present a complete spectrum of programming. This required large amounts of capital and restricted access to the marketplace. Second, because of the limited number of available multiplexed channels, ratings were important and most of the cable networks chased the same mainstream viewing preferences.
High speed Internet access will change everything about television. Currently, there are many competing technologies, however, the edge most likely will go to systems such as AT&T Broadband that use an existing multiplexed cable channel. You literally will be watching cable television, but the source of the signal will be directed through the Internet. AT&T is positioning itself to be a full-spectrum Internet supplier, including Internet based television and movies.
There are some obvious implications of this change in prevailing technology. One is the 'episode archive'. After its airing, a television show will be uploaded onto the Network web site for people to view whenever they want. Advertising rate cards will begin to quote two rates; one for the initial airing and a 'per view' rate from the archive. There is no particular reason why the advertisements in the initial broadcast must be the same as the ones in the Archive version. In fact, there is no reason why the archive version must contain advertising at all. For a nominal fee, the viewer can choose to download a commercial free version.
Western civilization has become change receptive. There are many, many examples of a new technology moving from 'surprising' to 'old hat' in just a couple of years. Internet based television will profoundly change people's viewing habits. The 'broadcast schedule' which has been an embedded assumption of television from the beginning will disappear. People will watch a particular television show when it suits their mood, not when it is being shown. Many people will choose to purchase commercial free versions which will completely change the way television is financed and how people become aware of their purchasing options.
The evolution to Internet based television will also dramatically modify the role of the Network. Time slot competition will become meaningless. Prime Time will also lose its significance. Networks can offer more or less programming than the time slots that have traditionally been the determinant. Ratings and share, which has driven so much of the Industry, will no longer be a decision making criteria. If a show is profitable, it will be made available. The cost of Internet supplied television will be low, consequently the number of profitable shows will explode.
Today, we are mostly there. Both Broadcast TV (though mostly delivered through cable) and cable TV is still mostly dominant, but losing ground quickly. Netflix, Hulu, Amazone Prime, HBO, Paramount, Disney+ and others are now the Internet delivered Networks that I envisioned, producing their own content. According to surveys, the majority of people now get their news from the Internet, and this includes many Internet based news networks and independent shows.
Often, what I am saying today may seem counterintuitive, even wrong. But, so did this little article 23 years ago. One of my problems as a 'public intellectual' is that I do tend to live 20 years in the future and that is beyond the planning horizon for most people. When they do think about 20 years in the future, it is seriously clouded by propaganda, hopes and fears. Not for me. I have no agenda and my motivation is totally that of curiosity.
